GOOD PRECEDENT: 2ND-HALF SUCCESS

I was never good at deciphering and interpreting the past-performance hieroglyphics in the Daily Racing Form, but at least I figured out that it was probably smart to bet on proven stretch runners. In other words, fine finishers.

That can be carried over to football and, specifically, to Pete Carroll’s teams at USC.

Trojan fans should be excited by but not frightened by the tough season-ending stretch following the trip to Stanford’s new stadium: Oregon, California, Notre Dame, UCLA and a bowl opponent. First, because the first three of those games are in the Coliseum, where USC loses about as often as a Las Vegas casino. Second, because the Trojans have overcome some injuries to key players. And third, because USC in the Carroll regime finishes as I imagine Seabiscuit did.

These statistics bear out the last item:
Counting the last six games in each of Carroll’s five previous seasons, the Trojans were 27-3. They were 23-1 in the past four seasons.

Not only that, but Troy has been dominant in the second halves of games, outscoring opponents 1063-444 in the past four years (a margin of 619 points), 1197-515 in the past five. Think what those margins would be if USC had not let up in many games. For example, 7-14 in the second half against Stanford in 2005, a game the Trojans won 51-21. Or 14-7 vs. Cal in a 35-10 blowout, or 3-0 vs. Arizona State in a 45-7 blowout, or 14-20 vs. UCLA in a 47-22 smashing.

Center Ryan Kalil was asked why USC is almost unbeatable in second halves.

“I think it’s a couple of things,” he said. “One of them, I definitely feel our conditioning is a big deal. The off-season, the in-season, our practices – the high intensity really (conditions) your body in a way that I think is unlike any other athlete in the country. A lot of that is due to (strength and conditioning coach) Chris Carlisle and coach Carroll and the attitude he puts on our team. . And how important it is to push ourselves inn the off-season, so we realize when it comes down to this time in the season, we kind of separate from other teams.”

Carlisle was hired away from the U. of Tennessee, the first hire of the Carroll regime.

(I am reminded of something UCLA basketball coach John Wooden told me years ago. Something to the effect that, “We might be outcoached and outplayed, but we will never be outconditioned.”) “Then the other thing is just the confidence,” said Kalil. “(Carroll) does a great job of showing so many examples, either from our own games from previous years or even looking at an NFL game – seeing the way other teams finish. . He’s always showing us how we can learn from other people andd not only just ourselves. How great teams finish and how some teams don’t finish . how teams that shouldn’t lose end up losing because they didnn’t realize it’s a four-quarter game.”

Lots of other factors figure in, of course, not the least of which is the quality of competition in practice. Kalil frequently must block Sedrick Ellis — “Most of the time I go against Sedrick, so that’s a battle every day. I’m always icing my neck and back because of this guy.”

(And here’s a name to file away for the future: Michael Morgan. He’s a freshman linebacker from Skyline High in Dallas. “There’s definitely some (scrub-team) guys that have been doing a great job, that I feel are going to be great for us. Michael Morgan’s been a guy who’s been hustling for our service team nd really has a lot of potential.”)

Back to the stretch run, my prediction – this is made before the Oregon State game – is that USC will lose at least once but will end up in a prestigious bowl, maybe even in the one for the national championship. What influences me is that the great Matt Leinart-Reggie Bush-LenDale White team came perilously close to losing several times, and did lose to Texas, so how can this much younger bunch, without the same scoring potential, complete the difficult task of going undefeated.

Of course, based on my record of cashing few tickets at the racetrack – betting on good stretch runners or no – nobody should listen to me.