Many teams try to argue that strong recent performances justify a move to the PAC 10. This post will attempt to separate the wheat from the chafe. The reasons behind selecting teams for consideration are given in my introductory article.
By examining the record of a team over their last 9 PAC 10 games, an estimate of how each team would fair in a full PAC 10 schedule can be made. How far back one has to go to find 9 games is given in parenthesis. Examining the number of PAC 10 games in the last five years is a good measure of PAC 10 interest in playing each team. This is amplified if the PAC 10 teams are willing to travel. Bowl records over the last 10 years give a separate measure of performance over quality teams. Home attendance measures the current fan base of each team.
Records are extracted from James Howell’s database. Attendance figures are from the NCAA
| Team | Last 9 | Games(Home) | Bowl | Attendance |
| Boise State | 3-6 (1998) | 5(2) | 5-3 | 30338 |
| BYU | 3-6 (2003) | 9(3 & 2 Bowls) | 2-4 | 64497 |
| Colorado | 3-6 (2000) | 5(3) | 3-4 | 50509 |
| Fresno State | 3-6 (2002) | 8(3) | 3-4 | 36291 |
| Hawaii | 4-5 (1998) | 4(4) | 4-2 | 43514 |
| Idaho | 0-9 (2003) | 10(0) | 1-0 | 11497 |
| Nevada | 1-8 (1998) | 4(1) | 1-2 | 17087 |
| SDSU | 0-9 (2001) | 7(4) | 0-1 | 27940 |
| San Jose St. | 1-9 (2002) | 5(2) | 1-0 | 15465 |
| Texas | 4-5 (1987) | 2(2 Bowls) | 7-3 | 85144 |
| UNLV | 2-7 (1983) | 0 | 1-0 | 29281 |
| Utah | 6-3 (2001) | 7(4) | 7-0 | 42593 |
Based on this data it is reasonable to eliminate Idaho, Nevada and UNLV from further consideration. San Jose St. and SDSU will remain based on California politics.
I will mention that Texas and BYU are the only teams on the list with a national championship in football, Texas in 2005-06 over USC in the Rose Bowl. Texas, Colorado, Utah and Boise State are the only teams listed that have been to a BCS Bowl, Texas twice and Utah before the non-BCS bar was lowered.
Texas undeniably has the best name nationally, but to find nine games against PAC 10 teams one must go back to the days of the SWC in 1987. Four of those nine games were Bowl games. The PAC 10 and Texas apparently have little interest in competing directly on the field.
Utah is the only team listed that has a winning record against the PAC 10 over its last nine tries. Utah, SDSU and Hawaii have hosted the most PAC 10 teams. Hawaii benefits from favorable NCAA rules allowing visitors an extra home game. Idaho and BYU have the most games against the PAC 10 in recent years. Fresno State has the most meetings excluding Bowl games. Utah and Hawaii have hosted more Pac 10 teams than the rest. While Boise State has been to more Bowl games that Utah, no team has won more bowl games than Texas and Utah.
Admitting that Boise State has defeated Utah twice over the period in question, Utah is the most competitive team the PAC 10 has on this list, other than Texas. BYU plays more PAC 10 teams competitively, not just for homecoming. BYU has one of the largest stadiums under consideration.
The top 5 attendance figures above are, in order, Texas, BYU, Colorado, Utah and Fresno St.
Utah and BYU are the teams that the PAC 10 has a demonstrated an interest in playing while providing good competition and maintaining the natural rivalry structure of the conference.
TrojanWire 
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