Here is the list of players who (right now) have the best chance of actually winning the Heisman:

1. Mark Ingram, Alabama–Ingram had another good game, rushing for 149 yards and two touchdowns on 19 carries against Mississippi State.  He’ll pad his stats some more against Chattanooga next Saturday, then will have a chance to clinch the Heisman against Auburn and Florida.  On the year, he has 1,297 yards and 10 touchdowns, with another 25 catches for 225 yards and three scores.  He is on pace to have 1,686 yards and 13 touchdowns by the time the Heisman vote is due.   If he keeps doing what he has been doing and then closes out strong in a win over Florida, I like his chances of winning the Heisman.  However, the surges by running backs Toby Gerhart and C.J. Spiller could dilute some of his strength across the various voting regions.  Ingram’s old advantage of being the only legitimate running back in a race filled with quarterbacks might be turned on its head as he could end up being one of three running back candidates versus just one quarterback (McCoy).  This is one reason why I give him only a slight edge over McCoy right now.

2. Colt McCoy, Texas–McCoy is playing well of late and is coming off a 181-yard, two-TD performance in a rout of Baylor.  On the year, he has 2,628 passing yards, with 19 touchdowns and eight interceptions, while completing 72 percent of his passes.  He is on pace to have 3,416 passing yards, 25 touchdown passes and 12 interceptions by the time the Heisman vote is due.  Is this enough to overcome Ingram’s late surge?  The imminent collapse of Case Keenum’s candidacy should move some voters his way and many will be impressed by his career achievements, including the most wins ever by a quarterback.  McCoy is in a fairly good position:  If Alabama beats Florida, it eliminates the last quarterback with a shot at garnering significant support (Tebow) and makes McCoy the most viable option at that position.  If Florida beats Alabama, though, it could increase Tebow’s support at Ingram’s expense while making it likely that neither can beat out McCoy.  Of course, McCoy has to finish strong and get Texas to the BCS title game to make all this work.   

3. Toby Gerhart, Stanford–I wrote earlier last week about the player with the best chance of mounting a late-season run at the Heisman.  It was a wild scenario dependent on Gerhart having a big game against USC.  Well, he rushed for 178 yards and three touchdowns against the Trojans, giving him 1,395 yards and 19 touchdowns on the season.  He’s on pace to have 1,674 yards and 23 touchdowns by the time the Heisman vote is due (in 12 games, versus 13 for Ingram and McCoy).  Gerhart is still a longshot, but he does have a shot.  Of course, Stanford needs to win out, which would mean respectable wins over Cal and Notre Dame to give the Cardinal a 9-3 record.  He would need for Ingram to wilt down the stretch, yet for Alabama to beat Florida, thus eliminating both Ingram and Tebow.  Meanwhile, McCoy would have to underwhelm the rest of the way, while Gerhart closes with big games against the Bears and the Irish.  Can it happen?  Sure.  Will it?  There’s the rub.  Stanford needs to start making its case on his behalf, anyway. 

4. Tim Tebow, Florida–Tebow had 199 yards and one touchdown passing, along with 26 yards and a touchdown rushing against South Carolina.  On the year, he has 1,730 passing yards, 12 TD passes and four interceptions, along with 604 rushing yards and 10 scores.   He is on pace to have 2,249 passing yards, 16 touchdown passes, five interceptions, 785 rushing yards and 13 scores by the time the Heisman vote is due.  I think Tebow’s Heisman hopes are dwindling fast and his only hope is to put up crazy numbers from this point on.  Of course, the Gators need to win out, but he also needs for Ingram, McCoy and Gerhart to tank.  I think that is unlikely to happen, but you never know.

If the vote were held today

1. Mark Ingram

2. Colt McCoy

3. Tim Tebow

4. Toby Gerhart

5. Case Keenum

6. C.J. Spiller

7. Kellen Moore

8. Ndamukong Suh

9. Jimmy Clausen

10. Jordan Shipley