Several of the items on his list – like the Best Song category being boring – have become foregone conclusions in most years, so they’re not the riskiest of predictions. But I’m willing to bet he’s nailed 90% of his calls here, and the nominations aren’t even out:

Actor: Jeff Bridges,
Actress: Meryl Streep,
Supporting Actor: Cristolph Waltz, Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique,
Screenplay: “Inglourious Basterds,”
Adapted Screenplay: “Up in the Air,” Animated Film: “Up,”
Foreign Film: “The White Ribbon,” Documentary: “The Cove,”
Original Score: “Up,”
Original Song: “Crazy Heart.”

When it really comes down to it, aren’t the Oscars really just the world’s biggest marketing/PR contest? The prettiest people in the world dress up and present these awards that recognize a performance and how well it was marketed (how many people saw it and were primed to really observe the acting or writing). The product matters, but only relative to competition and context. You can’t always control the former, but savvy ad men and pr mavens can do a lot to shape the latter.

I don’t imagine I’m telling anyone there’s no Santa Claus for the first time. Even if you made it into the last decade, I’m pretty sure Crash provided the indisputable evidence that the best movie, or even a very good movie, doesn’t always win.