There’s always the haters. There’s always the doubters. But I’m going to go out on a limb here and stake the claim: The Pac-10 will be one of the strongest conferences this season. With a fresh batch of highly touted talent and a high number of starters returning, the pac-10, the conference should power its way into the AP Top 25. Or at least more so than the three teams (USC, CAL, OSU) that made it into the closing poll last season.
One determinant that has the potential to make or break the conference is that elusive bcs factor – strength of schedule (SOS). Love it or hate it, Rivals‘ Steve Megargee – in a special to SI.com – released what he thinks are the nation’s top 25 toughest schedules. Not surprising, five pac-10 teams make the cut; three of them in the top 10. What is surprising however, are the four pac-10 teams aside from USC that make the list. In fact, a Pac-10 team tops the national list…and it ain’t the Trojans.
USC – SOS #8
Let’s start with Jarrett’s old number. According to Megargee’s list, the USC Trojans rank eighth in nation with a killer road schedule. Idaho aside (wack in the WAC with a 2006 conference 3-5 record), road games at Nebraska, Cal, Notre Dame, Oregon and ASU could be contentious battles. The only good news for the Trojans is that the only two teams to beat USC last season (OSU and UCLA) are home games this time around.
Now for the kicker: The four teams that bottomed out in the standings last year, represent the rest of the Pac-10 conference in the SOS list. And at the head of the list:
WASHINGTON – SOS #1
If the Trojans have a killer schedule, the Huskies are headed into a straight massacre. The Huskies’ non-conference schedule pits them against Syracuse, Boise State (the only undefeated team, 2006 AP #8), Ohio State (2006 AP #2). In addition to those three teams, Washington also faces USC (2006 AP – #4) within its first five weeks. The Huskies went 5-7 last season and were the only team to lose to a sad Stanford. And now on to —
STANFORD – SOS #9
Also in the top ten toughest schedules: Stanford. I just don’t even know what to say. I’m sorry. It hurts so bad. I’m one for the underdog and just…ouch. Not only must they face USC on the road, but also have games against TCU, Notre Dame and of course Cal. At least most of their toughest games will be at home. But you know…it’s Stanford, so expect them to lose. A lot. But that aside, I have high hopes for Stanford. Jim Harbaugh turned it around down in San Diego, and the return of fifth year senior QB T.C. Ostrander sure helps. Now all they need is an offensive line that can protect him…and maybe some miracles at running back…and a boost at receiver…and defense. Yeah. Some sort of defense might help a little. And special teams…
Watch for the home game against San Jose State. It might actually be close and give you a good idea where Stanford will stand for the rest of the season. Stanford might just surprise you by not winding up at the bottom of the pac-10 barrel.
WASHINGTON STATE – SOS #20
Washington State – The reason the Cougars make this list is based one factor: road schedule. Their home schedule is filled with cushy teams like Idaho and San Diego State. But their road games include Wisconsin (11-1, 2006 AP#7), USC, Oregon and Cal. The team that went 6-6 last year should do well with Alex Brink as a fourth year starter at QB.
ARIZONA – SOS #22
Arizona finished eighth in the pac-10 last season. Pretty sad, except for the fact that they beat Cal at home in 2006, which allowed the Trojans’ to later clench the Pac-10 conference. Now Arizona is back with what looks like, aside from BYU, a pretty easy non-conference schedule.
The reason Arizona makes the cut is it’s road schedule. BYU, CAL, OSU, USC and rival ASU will make every away game an uphill battle. Will Arizona strike again with a surprise upset? I wouldn’t count it out. Will they finish in the top five of the pac-10? That would surprise me.
Five Pacific-10 teams. Five among the most difficult schedules in the country. Could a good record along with a strong SOS grant one of these down-trodden teams a bowl berth? Yes. Absolutely. But realistically a strong SOS is most likely to help USC with another top finish.
For the rest of the guys…those Huskies and Cougars and Wildcats and Tree…uhhh cardinal things….Their strength of schedules will most likely work against them, reinforcing their place at the bottom of the Pac-10 for another season. For the underdogs, SOS will no longer mean strength of schedule, but “save our souls” by the end of the 2007.
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