10-24-09: Miami, Stanford, and USC


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Straight Bet $25 to win $22.73
Miami (-5) over Clemson

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Stanford (-7.5) over Arizona St

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USC (-20.5) over Oregon St

Three Team Parlay $25 to win $150
Miami (-5) over Clemson
Stanford (-7.5) over Arizona St
USC (-20.5) over Oregon St

Dr. Bob thinks USC should put up 40 points and is a good bet ATS. Analysis after the jump.

USC (-20.5) 40 Oregon St. 14
24-Oct-09 05:00 PM Pacific Time

Oregon State derailed USC’s championship hopes last season and the Trojans are well equipped to get their revenge at home (they’re 5-2 ATS in home revenge games under coach Carroll). The Beavers simply aren’t that good and a 10 point home loss to Cincinnati suggests that they can’t compete with elite teams. Oregon State has averaged a modest 5.4 yards per play in 5 games against Division 1A opposition and I rate their attack at just 0.3 yppl better than average heading into this game (which takes into account recent momentum). USC, however, has a defense that has allowed just 3.9 yppl this season (to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average defense) and that unit has recently held very good offensive teams Cal and Notre Dame to just 4.7 yppl. My math model projects just 263 total yards at 3.9 yppl for Oregon State in this game.

The Beavers are also just 0.3 yppl better than average defensively (5.5 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.8 yppl against an average stop unit) and they’ll have a tough time slowing down a Trojans’ attack that rates at 2.0 yppl better than average offensively with Matt Barkley at quarterback (he missed their loss at Washington) – averaging 7.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team. My model projects 507 total yards at 7.3 yppl for USC in this game, which should result in about 40 points

My math model gives USC a profitable 55% chance of covering at -21 points, which is good enough to make the Trojans a Strong Opinion in this game. I’ll consider USC a Strong Opinion at -21 points or less.

Kyle Bunch

Partnerships for R/GA Ventures. Raised in California, adopted by Texas. Opinions expressed here are mine and they are fantastic.

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